HHP: Hard Deadline, Trial and File


Frobby’s predictions

Manny Machado: He’s made $5 mm and $11.5 mm the last two years.    He’s having a slightly down season but still may finish with 35 HR and 100 RBI.   I’m guessing he will make $17 mm next year.   For reference points, Josh Donaldson is making $17 mm this year after making $11.6 last year; Nolan Arenado will make $17.75 mm next year after making $11.75 this year.

Zach Britton: He made $3.2 mm, $6.75 mm and $11.4 mm the last three years.  He’s been hurt a lot and not nearly as effective this year as in 2014-16.    I’ll guess he earns $13.2 mm.    Precedent: Chris Davis was raised from $10.35 mm to $12 mm after his lousy 2014 campaign. (edit, pre-injury)

Jonathan Schoop:  He made $3.475 mm this year.   He’s had a career year and will deserve a nice bump.   I’m guessing he makes $8 mm next year.    Precedent: Roughned Odor’s long-term deal increases from $3.33 mm to $7.83 mm this year.     Also, Manny got a 130% raise in his 2nd year of arbitration after an excellent year.

Kevin Gausman:   He’s been a big disappointment.  He earned $3.45 mm this year as a Super-2.    I’m guessing $5.25 mm for Gausman next year.   Precedent:   Chris Tillman was raised from $4.315 mm to $6.225 mm after a disappointing 2015 season.

Brad Brach:  He made $1.25 mm and $3.05 mm the last two years, beating the Orioles in arbitration this last time.    He’s had a decent year, not a great one, and was called into closer duty for a while and was only so-so in that role.    My guess is he goes to $5.25 mm.   Precedent:  Tyler Clippard went from $4.0 mm to $5.875 mm after a nice season where he posted a 2.41 ERA as a setup man.    Britton went from $3.2 mm to $6.75 mm after his second year as closer.    From a percentage point of view, this is between those two.

Caleb Joseph:  He lost his arbitration case and is making $700,000 after a historically bad season.    This year he’s having his best year and has earned his way to playing roughly 50% of the time.   I haven’t found a really good comp but I think his salary at least triples.  Put me down for $2.25 mm.

Tim Beckham:  he earned $885 k this year as a Super Two.   He’s had a breakout year, especially since being traded to the O’s.    He’s got a huge raise coming — to $3 mm?     Precedent:  Roughned Odor made $1.33 mm as a Super-2, increased to $3.33 mm next year as a part of his long-term deal after a 2.4 WAR, .798 OPS season.

I have $53.95 mm for these 7 players, who made about $34.3 mm this year.