We all know that the Orioles pitching staff was a disappointment during the first half. Just how bad was it? Do things figure to improve during the second half? Take out the numbers of the jettisoned Byrdak, Dubose, Brower, Halama, Rodriguez, and Manon and that ERA drops to a slightly more palatable 4.89. Take out the numbers of Adam Loewen and now you have an ERA of 4.78. 

How do those numbers compare to last year’s staff? The 2005 Orioles had a team ERA 4.8% higher than the AL average. Add 4.8% to the 2006 AL average ERA of 4.55 and you have an ERA target of 4.77. In other words, minus the “contributions” of Byrdak, Dubose, Brower, Halama, Rodriguez, Manon, and Loewen the 2006 Orioles pitching staff is about the same relative to the AL as the 2005 Orioles staff. Unfortunately, things don’t work that way. For one, it was the decisions of the front office and coaching staff that placed these pitchers on the team. Also, how much better would the 2005 Orioles staff had been without Ponson, Julio, and Kline to name a few? Another reason is that Loewen, and possibly Rodriguez, Byrdak, and Manon still figure to play a role in the second half – not to mention the mighty Russ Ortiz.

The next question that needs to be asked is this: was 5.17 a good indicator of this staff’s abilities? In my opinion, it isn’t a good indicator, or at the very least, there are better indicators. One statistic I have often pushed is FIP ERA. The overall unadjusted FIP ERA of this staff through the first 81 games was 5.18. Ouch, maybe 5.17 isn’t such a bad indicator after all. Prior to the season (and in a couple of other articles since then) I introduced a stat I call True Performance ERA (TPE) – which is ERA based on batted ball data plugged into Component ERA. According to TPE, with a league average combination of “luck” and defense the Orioles would have had an ERA of 4.89. Baseball HQ uses a stat they call XERA. Combining batted ball data and XERA would give us an ERA of 4.70. So according to FIP ERA, 5.17 is about right, but according to TPE and XERA, it is very much on the high side. What we have to understand, however, is that FIP ERA does have some deficiencies when not adjusted. Make adjustments for walks and strikeouts due to park factors and home runs due to batted ball data, and we’d have an adjusted FIP ERA of 4.95.

So how do the numbers look when taking out the performances of Byrdak, Dubose, Brower, Halama, Rodriguez, and Manon? ERA: 4.89, FIP ERA: 5.01, TPE: 4.75, XERA: 4.61, adjusted FIP: 4.80. Each is still higher than we’d like, but virtually each is still a positive indicator of future improvement. Now add Loewen to the above list. ERA: 4.78. FIP ERA: 4.98. TPE: 4.73, XERA: 4.61, adjusted FIP: 4.78. Again, we have some more positive signs. I’ll take it. 

How do the numbers look by month? (Minus Byrdak, Dubose, Brower, Halama, Rodriguez, and Manon):

Those numbers tell me the pitching staff is definitely headed in the right direction. No, maybe they aren’t good enough yet to post a 4.32 ERA, but they are still headed in the right direction. It seems to me that May and April are backwards. Switch those two months and suddenly you have a positive trend with every listed stat.

So what should we expect from the key players (assuming each remains in Baltimore)? 

Kris Benson

I would expect to see his ERA to go up as the season progresses. He just doesn’t have the K-Rate or Command Rate for my taste. His overall HR-Rate was hurt by his June – even though his overall HR/OFFB rate of 10.38% is right where we would expect it to be. Some people have said they should trade him while they can. Strictly from a statistical analysis point of view, I would tend to agree that they could probably sell high right now. However, I’d probably keep him unless someone made a great offer. As much as I normally don’t agree with such things, I feel this staff needs a leader, and Benson appears to be providing this leadership. Just don’t be surprised to see his final ERA to be on the wrong side of 4.50.

Rodrigo Lopez

Positive trends in HR-Rate and adjusted FIP ERA. While his theoretical ERAs indicate that he’s been much better than he’s shown, they still aren’t that great. Yet another pitcher on this staff who just doesn’t strike out enough batters, but at least he doesn’t walk a lot either. They really need to trade him to the first team that makes a decent offer. Maybe pitching for a contender is just what he needs. I could see him pitching to a 4.75-ish ERA the rest of the way.

Erik Bedard

Talk about a pitcher who was glad to see May come to an end. Like Benson, the signs were there in April that May wasn’t going to be kind to Bedard (compare his TPE, FIP, and XERA to his actual ERA for April). While I don’t expect Bedard to post an ERA in the 3.00 range the rest of the way I do think it is certainly possible that he will post a sub 4.00 ERA. The key for him is to have a K-Rate in the 7.00 to 7.50 range while maintaining his April and June BB-Rates.

Daniel Cabrera

Cabrera is definitely a pitcher who appears to be regressing. One of the promising things about Cabrera coming into this season was his combination of a very high K-Rate and a very high GB%. Suddenly this season he is allowing more Fly Balls than Ground Balls. Prior to the season I predicted an ERA in the 4.25 range for Cabrera – maybe I shouldn’t have said what year that would be posted. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a second half ERA in the 4.75 range for Cabrera the rest of the way. In other words, about the same as 2005. Unfortunately, the Orioles pretty much have no choice other than to keep sending him out there every five days.

Bruce Chen

Adam Loewen

Russ Ortiz

2006 is the opposite of 2005 for Chen in many regards. For instance, his ERA was much lower than most of the theoretical ERAs suggested it should have been. Now this year his theoretical ERAs are much lower than his actual ERA. I personally think he’s where he should be right now – unless, of course, they receive a decent trade offer. As for Ortiz, I still haven’t figured out what he’s doing in an Orioles uniform. Loewen showed some promise while he was up, of course, he also showed he needs more time in the minors. So the problem is that while they have eight potential starters (including Hayden Penn), they don’t have one single pitcher not named Benson or Bedard who they can reasonably expect to give them seven solid innings in any one start.

Chris Ray

Interesting set of numbers for Ray. While he has shown nice improvement in his BB-Rate, his K-Rate is showing a disturbing trend. As a flyball pitcher we can expect Ray to give up more than his fair share of home runs. While a 3.38 rate is way too high, his overall rate is probably about what we can expect from him. His HR-Rate is the primary cause behind his high FIP ERA. The fact that TPE and XERA are both so close to his actual ERA tells me that he is likely to post an ERA in the 3.25 range over the second half. All in all, he obviously has the makings of a mighty fine closer / relief ace. I also find Perlozzo’s willingness to occasionally bring him in during the 8^th inning to be promising.

Chris Britton

Kurt Birkins

I really like these two kids. If I were the GM I’d sit down with Perlozzo and map out a strategy for how to use them the rest of the way. My strategy would be to use them in sort of a “relief ace” role in which they would be brought in during high leverage situations any time between the 6^th and 8^th innings. I will say that I expect each of their ERAs to go up over the second half, I still see each having some success. The thing to look for with Britton is for him to give up a few more home runs than he has thus far. He’s shown himself to be an extreme flyball pitcher in the mode of Chen and Ray, I find it hard to believe he’ll maintain a HR-Rate in the 0.65 range.

Latroy Hawkins

Todd Williams

Sendy Rleal

It is amazing to me that two pitchers with such different styles as Hawkins and Williams could put up such similar numbers. I’ve never been a big fan of Williams, he’s actually putting up the types of numbers that I’ve always expected him to put up. If I were the GM I’d market him heavily to every NL contender (I seem him having more value to NL teams) with the hope that one of them will be willing to give up something of some value in return for him. As for Hawkins, I applauded the trade that brought him here – I never was a fan of the Kline signing, and was glad to see him go. As glad as I was to see them acquire Hawkins, I’d market him heavily to every AL contender (I see him being more valuable to an AL team) with the hope that I’d be able to get something of value in return. 

As for Rleal, I consider him to be a disappointment (based on the belief that his 3.50 ERA is an aberration). The same thing applies to Rleal that applies to many other Orioles players – he’d be traded to the first team to offer something of value in return.

Overall, I see a lot of promise in the form of Bedard, Cabrera, Loewen, Ray, Britton, and Birkins, along with some formidable trade fodder in Benson, Lopez, Hawkins, Williams, and even Chen and Rleal – and then there’s Ortiz.

This is obviously a lost season, hopefully the Orioles front office will see it as such and will wisely use their trade chips to acquire useful talent that can play roles on the next good Orioles team.