Flanagan Era Pitching Acquisitions

by Ted Cook

 

During his tenure as a member of the front office, Mike Flanagan and the Orioles have brought in 16 different pitchers.  These 16 pitchers have combined for a 54-82 record with a 5.31 ERA.  In a combined 20 full or partial seasons, they have had five winning records (Chen twice; Halama, Hawkins, and Ligtenberg once each), and a sub 4.00 ERA four times (Chen twice; Baldwin, and Ligtenberg once each).  Not exactly 16 Cy Young Award candidates.

 

Before I go further, let me say that Mike Flanagan knows more about pitching than I ever thought about knowing or ever hope to know.  He knows more about what it takes to be a successful major league pitcher than I will ever know.   

 

The purpose of this article is to look at the pitchers acquired under his watch, and maybe see if their numbers tell us anything about maybe what the Orioles were after or what they might have thought they were getting.  One thing’s for sure; they weren’t focused on the pitcher’s win / loss record.  In the season, or partial season prior to coming to Baltimore, these pitchers were a combined 67-88, even though three of the five starters had winning records.

 

On the bright side, the 16 combined for a respectable 4.30 ERA.  Compared to other AL East teams, the new acquisitions by the Orioles fared pretty well in terms of ERA.  During the same timeframe, new acquisitions by the Yankees had a cumulative ERA of 3.62 prior to coming to New York, compared to 4.14 for the Red Sox, 4.26 for the Blue Jays, and 5.93 for the Devil Rays (talk about a team that wasn’t looking at ERA).

 

Hopefully, they base pitcher acquisitions on more than just ERA (which is a safe bet).  If Flanagan were to ask my advice on what to look for when performing statistical analysis, I would tell him not to pay too much attention to ERA – especially when it comes to pitchers who were previously in the National League.  Instead, I would focus on things such as a comparison of ERA to theoretical ERAs, infield flyball percentage, line drive percentage, and most importantly, K-Rate and Command Rate (K to BB Rate).

 

Starting Pitchers

During the Flanagan era, the Orioles have brought in six starting pitchers.  These six pitchers were a combined 45-45-4.34.  Those are decent enough numbers – especially when you consider three of the pitchers had an ERA of 4.13 or lower.  So where did they go wrong?  The first thing that jumps out is that other than Ainsworth, none of the six was getting a lot of strikeouts.  Only three of the six had a K-Rate higher than 6.0, but one of those three actually had a matching BB-Rate and another had a very high HR-Rate.  Two of the six actually had a K-Rate of less than 5.0. 

 

Another thing I personally like to look at is theoretical ERAs.  From a recent study, I concluded that the most reliable theoretical ERA is one that I call XERA3.  Moss and Ortiz actually had XERA3s above 5.00, while Ainsworth and Helling were around 4.50, and Daal was at 4.60. 

 

This is how the six starters (including Benson) did prior to and after coming to Baltimore:

 

 

There’s another thing that sticks out about this group.  All except Benson pitched in the AL West prior to coming to Baltimore.  Why is that a problem?  Well, let’s go to the history books.  Since 2002, 42 pitchers have moved from the AL West to the AL East.  The following chart is a comparison of how those 42 pitchers fared in 2.937 innings in the AL West to how they fared in 2,746 innings in the AL East.  The right side of the chart shows what happened with the five Orioles starters who came over from the AL West.

 

 

No real surprises there.  Some might be surprised by the big difference in ERA.  To me that is just another indicator of the (lack of) reliability of ERA (okay, I will admit to being surprised by that much of a difference in ERA).  Those numbers tell me that the Orioles under Flanagan don’t seem to have placed much emphasis on strikeouts.  This really shouldn’t be a surprise when you consider both the era in which Flanagan pitched and his career numbers.  But this is a dangerous game to play – unless a lot of things go right and/or you have a really good defense.  The overall AL K-Rate since 2002 is 6.28, which means the six starters brought in under Flanagan were already 0.67 K/9 (adding Benson’s numbers to those above lowers the K-Rate to 5.61) below their AL counterparts even before taking into account the expected drop caused by a switch in leagues.

 

Earlier we compared the Orioles’ acquisitions to those of other AL East teams using ERA.  We have surmised that the Orioles don’t place much emphasis on K-Rate.  How about their counterparts?  Pitchers acquired by the Devil Rays had a cumulative K-Rate of 6.23, compared to 6.59 for the Blue Jays, 7.33 for the Yankees, and 7.34 for the Red Sox – all well ahead of those pitchers acquired by the Orioles.  By the way, of the AL East teams, the Blue Jays and Red Sox have had the most success in terms of both ERA and XERA3. 

 

Relief Pitchers

The Orioles have brought in 10 relievers during the Flanagan era (I’m counting Chen as a reliever as he had been used mostly as a reliever by the Astros and Red Sox).  Prior to coming to Baltimore they combined to go 22-43-4.25 with 29 saves.  Like the starters, not a bad ERA.  Unfortunately, they also had another similarity to the starters – a low cumulative K-Rate (6.55).  Actually, 6.55 isn’t bad – until you consider that all but about 80 of their combined 504 innings came in the NL.

 

To expound on the strikeout issue, none of the 10 relievers had a K-Rate above 8.0 prior to coming to Baltimore.  Only three (Brower – 7.91; DeJean – 7.73; Chen – 7.40) had a K-Rate above 7.0, and all but 12 of those strikeouts came in the NL.  It shouldn’t come as a surprise that these 10 relievers struggled in Baltimore (save an almost magical year-and-a-half for Chen). 

 

So what happened?  This chart is a before and after comparison in some key stats:

 

 

I was actually a little surprised by these numbers.  For all the moaning we’ve done about the performance of relievers brought in during the Flanagan era, they’ve actually performed better than the starters he’s brought in – at least in terms of ERA.

 

What to Expect

So based on Flanagan’s history, who can we expect the Orioles to go after this offseason?  Of the potential free agent starters I can see them going after Woody (3.65 ERA) Williams, Jeff (4.12 ERA) Suppan, Ted (4.31 ERA) Lilly, Gil (4.48 ERA) Meche, and/or Vicente (4.50 ERA) Padilla.

 

Williams and Suppan would both be coming from the NL, and we’ve seen how those pitchers have fared in the past with the Orioles.  I’d pass on each simply because neither was able to top a 5.0 K-Rate in the NL – and Suppan had a sub-2.0 Command Rate.  The other three have issues as well, but each would have a good shot at being a decent addition.

 

As for potential free agent relievers, I could see them going after Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Justin Speier, and/or Arthur Rhodes (due primarily to his former ties to Baltimore)  It also wouldn’t surprise me to see them go after pitchers such as Alan Embree, Mike Remlinger, or even surprises such as Russ Springer and David Weathers.  A big fear is that they will look at the 2.44 ERA of Rheal Cormier or the 3.86 ERA of Jose Mesa and will see them as good options.

 

Who Should They Sign?

It is easy for us to criticize the signing of a player after he performs poorly.  The trick is to provide a list of who they should go after (and then to hope that no one remembers who you were wrong about).

 

The only potential free agent starters not named Zito, Schmidt, or Matsuzaka that should be considered as anything more than roster filler are Lilly, Meche, and Padilla.

 

Yes, there are concerns about the consistency of each, but each has his good points.  Each has a plus K-Rate, even though each walks too many.  The bright side to the walks is that when they are coupled with a lot of strike outs, the defense is left with fewer opportunities. 

 

Overall, the potential free agent pitchers are a very lackluster group.  The Orioles might very well be better off either sticking with what they already have or even trying to trade for someone. 

 

So what about relievers?  They may actually be a more dismal group than the free agent starters.  Williamson, Rhodes, and Remlinger could all do well in the right situation – unfortunately, that situation probably isn’t Baltimore.  The three names that intrigue me the most are Embree, Bradford, and Speier.  Want a sleeper?  How about Aaron Fultz.

 

If the Orioles are serious about improving their bullpen, but aren’t comfortable with what they currently have in the organization and don’t like what’s available via free agency, here’s a list of relievers they may want to pursue via trade: Valverde, Lidge (each of whom is primed for a nice turn around in 2007), Mike Wuertz, Logan Kensing, Heath Bell, Randy Flores, Matt Smith, Glen Perkins, Billy Sadler, and Chris Schroder.  Of course, the trick is convincing their teams to trade them.

 

It has been mentioned that it might be a good idea to turn a “failed” starter into a reliever.  Here are two names the Orioles might want to consider: Dana Eveland and Angel Guzman – or even Jorge Sosa if they think Leo Mazzone can turn him around.

 

Looking at the above lists, it seems their best chance to get a reliable reliever or two would be through trade. 

 

Here’s wishing good luck to Dan Duquette and Mike Flanagan in trying to improve the pitching staff via free agency.