• Dec

    On the Record: Analysis of Brian Matusz

    Brian Matusz is a bit of a polarizing player here at the OH. I've always said the power of the Hangout is it's intelligent posters so I thought I'd start a thread where people can put down how they feel about Matusz in December of 2011. Some facts about Matusz:

    1.) He was 4th overall pick in 2008 who flew through the minor leagues in 2009 on his way to the major leagues in his first professional season.
    2.) He has lost three MPH off his fastball since his debut in 2009.
    3.) In 270 major league innings, batters have hit .285 with a .818 OPS against him, he has a 5.53 ERA and he's averaged 5.2 innings per start.
    4) He's a fairly extreme flyball pitcher (0.50 GB/FB and 0.64 GO/AO).
    5) He doesn't hold runners well (83% success rate despite having Wieters as his catcher).
    6) His career ERA against AL East teams:
    TOR - 18.56 in 3 starts
    TAM - 5.70 in 6 starts
    NYY - 4.70 in 7 starts
    BOS - 4.02 in 6 starts
    7) Every one of his career pitch values per 100 pitches are below average (-0.52 wFB/C, -0.97 wSL/C, -0.22, wCB/C, -1.69 wCH/C)
    8) He had statistically the worse season ever for any starter who made 10 starts or more in a season that they only started games.

    Some questions to consider:
    1) What is his overall potential? Does he still have TOR stuff despite the stats?
    2) What type of value does he have?
    3) How much weight do you give those 11 good starts at the end of 2010 where he put up a 2.18 ERA and held batters to a .211 batting average while putting up a 52/16 K/BB ratio over 62 innings?
    4) Does his extreme flyball ratio make him a bad fit for Camden Yards?

    I started to do some work with Pitch F/x numbers last night and the only that stood out was his lack of "whiff" rate for his pitches, especially last year. He also may be tipping his curveball with a higher release point.

    Either way, I'd like to see you guys do a pretty detailed analysis on Matusz. We've heard the concerns over him self-admittingly coming into camp not in pitching shape last year and we've heard the rumors that he didn't get along with pitch coach Rick Adair. We also know he is working with Brady this offseason and the hope is that he can get him ready to pitch better in 2012. But even if he comes into camp in great shape, does he have the stuff to compete in the AL East and does it work in Camden Yards. Another thing to consider is giving him a clean slate in another organization best for everyone involved?

    Let's see what you guys come up with.

    Discuss it here

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Tony Pente

Tony has owned and operated Orioles Hangout since 1996 and is well known for his knowledge of the Baltimore Orioles organization from top to bottom. He's a frequent guest on Baltimore-area sports radio stations and can be heard regularly on the 105.7 FM The Fan. His knowledge and contacts within the Orioles minor league system and the major league baseball scouting industry is unparalleled in the Baltimore media and is known as an expert on the Orioles prospects.