Scouting the 40-man roster: Who will be part of a winning future

John Means Photo by Craig Landefeld

With the Orioles in a full-blown rebuild, it makes sense to ask the question “Which players on the 40-man can be part of a winning future here in Baltimore?”

Of course, some of the Orioles top prospects in Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Ryan Mountcastle, Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, Zach Lowther and of course Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are all hopefully part of that future, but we will look at when these prospects could be ready to contribute in a future piece.

Grading System:
Grade  Hitters                  Starters                Relievers
80          HOFer                  HOFer #1  
75          Top 1-2                Top 1-2 #1  
70          Top 5                    Top 5 #1   
65          All-Star                 All-Star #1-#2    
60          Plus                      #2-#3                      Elite Closer All-Star
55          Above AVG          #3-#4                      Mid-Closer
50          AVG Regular        #4-#5                      Low-Closer/Elite Setup
45          Platoon/Utility      #5-Swingman      Setup
40          Bench                    Up/Down              Middle/Long relief
35          Up/Down              Emergency          Up/Down
30          Org (AA/AAA)      Org (AA/AAA)      Org (AA/AAA)
25          Org (AA)                Org (AA)               Org (AA)
20          Org (A Ball )          Org (A Ball)          Org (A Ball)


The percentages are my assessment of the chances that a player has of being a significant contributor to that season for the Orioles. By 2022, when the Orioles could realistically have a chance to start competing, I only see seven players as having a 50% chance or more of being a significant contributor with only John Means, Trey Mancini, Hunter Harvey, and Austin Hays as having a 70% or better of a chance.

Although a quick exercise, this goes to show that most of the talent that will be on a competing Orioles team is not currently on the 40-man roster. Probably not a big surprise to most, but an interesting exercise nonetheless.

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Tony has owned and operated Orioles Hangout since 1996 and is well known for his knowledge of the Baltimore Orioles organization from top to bottom. He's a frequent guest on Baltimore-area sports radio stations and can be heard regularly on the 105.7 FM The Fan. His knowledge and contacts within the Orioles minor league system and the major league baseball scouting industry is unparalleled in the Baltimore media and is known as an expert on the Orioles prospects.