After producing one of the best professional debut from a high school hitter drafted by the Orioles decades, 19-year old Coby Mayo makes the huge leap to the #3 prospect due to his tremendous upside of becoming an impact bat.
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 19
2021 Level: FCL/A-
Tools (current/future value)
Game Power: 40/60
Raw Power: 60/70
Most Likely Future Role: Starting 3rd Baseman/Right fielder/1st Baseman
Ceiling: Starting third baseman, Occasional All-Star
What we know: An overslot ($1.7 million) 4th round selection in the COVID shortened five round 2020 draft, the Orioles may have found a steal with this tall (6-foot-5) third baseman out of Stoneman Douglass High School in Parkland, Florida. With no minor league season in 2020 and after dealing with a leg injury this spring, Mayo started his 1st professional season in the Florida Complex League where he took little time to become one of the leagues best players. Slashing .329/.440/.566/1.005 with four home runs and six doubles to go along wit his impressive 13 BB to 14 K ratio in 91 PAs, he quickly earned a promotion to Delmarva along with his 2021 college drafted teammates. Reaching base in 25 of 27 games, Mayo out OPS’d all of his older teammates slashing .311/.416/.547/.963 with five home runs, nine doubles and a 16 Bb t0 26 K ratio in 125 PAs. His combined 159 wRC+ was the highest of any Orioles farmhand with more than 150 PAs. He showed no platoon difference actually hitting right-handed pitching a bit better than left-handed pitching.
Mayo generates above average bat speed with an aggressive, violent hip rotation that enables him to crate above average exit velocities. While there is some swing and miss, he draws his share of walks and showed above average plate discipline for a 19-year old in his first professional season. He runs well for his size and actually stole 11 bases without getting caught though stealing bases will not be part of his game as he matures into his large frame.
Defensively, Mayo showed some first step quickness and an impressive arm, but had inconsistent footwork leading to some inaccurate throws. At 6-foot-5, it will be hard for him to stay at 3B unless he can improve his footwork and maintain that quickness as he puts on weight. He moves well enough to move him out to right field if third base doesn’t work out before moving him potentially to first base.
What we don’t know: Obviously he’s still a long way from the major leagues so we don’t know how he will be able to hit upper level breaking and offspeed pitches, but the early results with his plate discipline are encouraging. Defensively, it’s questionable that he can stay at 3B though there’s no reason to move him off the position yet.
What we think: Mayo has out performed just about every high school drafted hitter in the last 30 years by the Orioles at the same age and level. Next year the Orioles could be aggressive and start him at Aberdeen though Aberdeen’s tough hitting environment may see the Orioles try to give him an easier start by returning him to Delmarva for another 100 or so PAs. Either way, Mayo’s upside is as high as anyone in the system and although we are being more aggressive in his high rankings than most places, we feel his ceiling and early plate discipline result warrant this palcement.